Mike's 2012 NFL Mock Draft (5/10/2011)
1.Carolina Panthers: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
I’m not going to start speculating on the 2012 draft order one day after the conclusion of the 2011 draft. The first pick should be Andrew Luck though, and the Panthers would have no trouble finding a trading partner here. Alshon Jeffery should battle Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon for the top spot at receiver. Both are top-10 talents.
2.Denver Broncos: Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas
Despite the team’s need for multiple defensive tackles, I had no problem with the Broncos taking Von Miller over Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley in the first round. After all, Denver had two second round picks and could have come away with Marvin Austin and Stephen Paea. Inexplicably, John Elway and Brian Xanders decided not to draft a defensive tackle at all. There aren’t any prospects at the position that are currently projected to be worthy of a top-10 selection in 2012. This is a tad high for a running back, but Davis could be worth it if he has another stellar season and runs a sub-4.4 forty at the combine.
3.Buffalo Bills: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If Andrew Luck plays anywhere close to the level he was at last year, he’ll be the first overall pick. If the team choosing #1 doesn’t need a quarterback, there’ll be a trade. This won’t be a situation where he falls to second or third because the team at the top of the draft doesn’t need a quarterback. There’s just no way the Bills will pass on Luck if he’s there. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl in Buffalo.
4.Cincinnati Bengals: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Dontay Moch was added to help aid Cincinnati’s anemic pass rush. While we have no doubt that he’ll be able to contribute in that department, Moch is too small to play as an every-down defensive end. He’ll likely be used at outside linebacker on first and second down. Quinton Coples enters the 2011 season as the clear favorite to be the first defensive end chosen in the 2012 draft. Coples tallied 8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss this past season and may have been selected ahead of teammate Robert Quinn had he declared for the 2011 draft.
5.Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Jenkins, OLB, Florida State
Jenkins will be in the mix to be the first player not named Andrew Luck to hear his name called next April. Jenkins plays defensive end at Florida State, but he may be undersized to remain there in the NFL. Jenkins dominated the ACC in 2010 on his way to 12 sacks. I have a feeling that Arizona will be Kevin Kolb’s landing spot so that’s why I’m not projecting Barkley or Jones here.
6.Cleveland Browns: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
This is the point in time where the trade with Atlanta starts to look really good for the Browns. Blackmon was the 2010 Biletnikoff winner and he’ll spend 2011 battling Alshon Jeffery for the top receiver spot in the draft. Blackmon is arguably better than Julio Jones. The Falcons could have stayed at #27 and landed Gabe Carimi. This is looking like a really good deal for Cleveland.
7.San Francisco 49ers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The 49ers landed Chris Culliver in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft and plan to play him at cornerback. I still think he’ll eventually end up at safety. Kirkpatrick is a big shutdown corner that’s an early favorite to be drafted in the top 10 if he declares for the 2012 draft.
8.Tennessee Titans: Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina
Taylor is a well-rounded prospect. He can rush the passer, but he’s also stout in run defense. Many thought the Titans would target Da’Quan Bowers in the first round of the 2011 draft. Bowers eventually fell out of the first round after it was revealed that his knee was in worse shape than originally thought.
9.Dallas Cowboys: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Cowboys didn’t address their need for a cornerback in the 2011 draft. Perhaps they’re preparing a run at free agent Nnamdi Asomugha. Or maybe Dallas is ok with Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman for one more season. Either way, it’s arguably the team’s biggest need right now. Gilmore has a chance to pass Dre Kirkpatrick this upcoming season. Even if he isn’t the first cornerback chosen next April, Gilmore looks like a safe bet to land somewhere in the first round.
10.Washington Redskins: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan wisely passed on the 2011 quarterback draft class. There wasn’t a franchise signal caller to be had, so Washington decided to improve its team in other areas. Next year will be a different story. Matt Barkley is absolutely a potential franchise quarterback and he’s worthy of being a top 10 pick.
11.Houston Texans: Xavier Rhodes, S, Florida State
Rhodes plays cornerback for Florida State, but he may be a better fit at safety in the NFL. If he puts together another season similar to his 2010 campaign, Rhodes will likely find a home in the first half of the first round.
12.Minnesota Vikings: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
It appeared that the Vikings were set to draft a defensive lineman had they passed on Christian Ponder in the first round of the 2011 draft. Ponder was the choice and defensive end wasn’t addressed. Branch is going to have to prove that he can produce without the help of former teammates Da’Quan Bowers and Jarvis Jenkins. If he can, he’ll be a top choice in 2012.
13.Detroit Lions: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
It’s finally time for the Lions to draft a franchise left tackle. Martin would have been the best prospect at the position if he entered the 2011 draft. Assuming all goes well with Matthew Stafford, these aren’t your father’s Lions anymore!
14.St. Louis Rams: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I’ll admit that I put a fair amount of speculation and projection into this choice. Then again, it’s May 4th, and I’m trying to project the 2012 NFL Draft. Running back could be a much bigger need for the Rams next offseason. Steven Jackson won’t play forever and many teams have two quality backs regardless of how good the “starter” is.
15.Miami Dolphins: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
This is the point where Dolphins fans are relieved that the team didn’t reach on a quarterback with the 15th pick in the 2011 draft. Landry Jones is a better NFL prospect than any quarterback that was in this past draft class. In 2012, he may be the third player chosen at the position. There’s an entire season left before this draft, and anything can change, but 2012 sure looks like a much better year to take a face-of-the-franchise quarterback.
16.Jacksonville Jaguars: Cliff Harris, CB, Oregon
The Jaguars didn’t address needs at cornerback or defensive end in the 2011 NFL Draft. The team is lucky to have Cliff Harris fall to them in this scenario. Harris is an elite prospect that stepped up for the Ducks last season as a sophomore.
17.Oakland Raiders: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
I felt like I talked about Matt Kalil an awful lot during the 2011 draft process. Anytime someone would voice concern that Tyron Smith played right tackle at USC, I’d bring up Kalil’s name. Tyron Smith is an excellent prospect, but the guy playing left tackle for the Trojans last year is even better. There’s very little chance he lasts this long, but the Raiders would sprint to the podium if he is still available.
18.San Diego Chargers: Donte Paige-Moss, OLB, North Carolina
The Chargers could use another rush linebacker. Paige-Moss fits the bill. He stepped up and had a big 2010 season while many of his teammates were suspended.
19.New York Giants: Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State
The Giants had a terrific 2011 draft. They prioritized value over need though, so the interior offensive line is still an area of concern. Brewster is the early favorite to be the top center off the board next year.
20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Nebraska’s other cornerback would have flirted with the first round had he declared this past year. Another strong season should cement his status as a top pick. The Bucs have issues at cornerback. Aqib Talib will likely be released after the lockout and Ronde Barber is nearing the end of his career.
21.Kansas City Chiefs: Nate Potter, OT, Boise State
The Chiefs could solidify their offensive line with the addition of Nate Potter. He could fit as the new left tackle and the team could slide Branden Albert back over to right tackle. This will ease the transition into the NFL for first year starter Ricky Stanzi (I said what I said heh).
22.Indianapolis Colts: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
I loved the draft strategy for the Colts in 2011. They attacked the offensive line and found two new starting tackles. Drake Nevis was a good choice the third round, but he isn’t big enough to play every down. The Colts have made a habit of playing small defensive tackles, but Worthy would finally solidify the interior of the defensive line.
23.Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Egnew, TE, Missouri
Tight end isn’t a huge need for the Eagles. Brent Celek has gotten the job done. Egnew is definitely an upgrade though, and the Eagles don’t have many needs right now. I thought about giving them Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles here as well.
24.New England Patriots: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
The Patriots entered the 2011 draft with two picks in each of the first three rounds. Somehow they managed to come away without filling many needs. Upshaw would instantly become the team’s best pass rusher.
25.Seattle Seahawks: Coryell Judie, CB, Texas A&M
The Seahawks used the 2011 draft to solidify the offensive line. Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell were taken late, but Sherman is a long-term project and Maxwell just isn’t very good. Seattle has to find a new starter at the position.
26.Baltimore Ravens: Kheeston Randall, DE, Texas
The Ravens got value out of their 2011 draft picks, but they also filled needs. Pernell McPhee may actually be able to step in and do a nice job at defensive end. He’s a little undersized though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore looks to further address the position next year.
27.Cleveland Browns: Marcus Forston, DT, Miami
The Browns complete the rebuild of their defensive line with Atlanta’s 2012 first rounder. Forston would be a good fit next to Phil Taylor in the middle.
28.New England Patriots: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Floyd was in danger of being Janoris Jenkinsed by Notre Dame earlier this offseason. As it stands, he’ll return to college next year. His talent is undeniable, and if he stayed out of trouble, I’d have him even higher than this.
29.Chicago Bears: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
The Bears did a nice job of filling some holes up front in the 2011 draft. Cornerback may not appear to be a huge need, but when you’re playing in a division with Aaron Rodgers, you can’t afford to have Tim Jennings starting. Minnifield could end up going a lot higher than this if he has another season like he had in 2010.
30.New York Jets: Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
Lewis is a better fit in a 4-3, but he could be too much of a value for the Jets to pass on.
31.Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
Broyles is a perfect fit as an eventual replacement for the aging Hines Ward. I really liked the Cam Heyward pick, but Broyles would have been very difficult to pass on if he declared for the 2011 draft.
32.Green Bay Packers: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
The Packers are a powerhouse. They draft an offensive lineman in the first round for the third consecutive year in an effort to protect the franchise (aka Aaron Rodgers).
Round 2
33. Carolina Panthers: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
The Panthers have remedied problems with their offense with early round draft picks and now it’s time to turn their attention to the defensive line.
34. Buffalo Bills: Brandon Lindsey, OLB, Pittsburgh
The Bills have to acquire a pass rusher at some point soon. Lindsey played under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt while the two were together at Pittsburgh.
35. Cincinnati Bengals: Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M
Gray is going to be another interesting player to track in 2011. He finished last season strong and could work his way into the first round next year if he continues to impress. The Bengals don’t have a running back so this is a good fit.
36. Denver Broncos: Tydreke Powell, DT, North Carolina
I don’t know why the Broncos passed on the defensive tackles that were drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft. After the defense allows 6,000 yards rushing this season, the position will be addressed.
37. Cleveland Browns: Matt Reynolds, OT, BYU
Reynolds has been consistently dominant at BYU. Another strong year in 2011 will likely earn him a spot in the first 50 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft.
38. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
I had a difficult time slotting Foles to the Cardinals because I would be surprised if Arizona didn’t land Kevin Kolb when the lockout ends. It hasn’t happened yet though, so I’ll project that the local product lands here for now.
39. Tennessee Titans: Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame
The Titans drafted Colin McCarthy in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, but he really projects to be more of an ace backup and core special teams player. Te’o has Pro Bowl potential.
40. Dallas Cowboys: Billy Winn, DE, Boise State
Winn is going to be one of the top 3-4 defensive ends drafted next year. He could easily end up being more of a first round option for Dallas, but he gets pushed to the second here.
41. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor
Griffin is the type of athletic quarterback prospect that Mike Shanahan usually loves. The Redskins will probably sign a veteran when the offseason ends, but Griffin could develop into a quality starter over time.
42. Houston Texans: Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington
Houston’s defense is almost as loaded as its offense after the addition of the draft’s best nose tackle.
43. Minnesota Vikings: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
The defense in Minnesota still has a lot of holes. The Vikings didn’t address the safety position in the 2011 draft.
44. Detroit Lions: Janoris Jenkins, CB, ???
Jenkins is going to have to stay out of trouble all season. He’s going to dominate at the FCS level. Jenkins is going to be the Jimmy Smith of 2012. He has top-10 talent, but he can’t stay out of trouble.
45. San Francisco 49ers: Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A&M
This selection would provide Colin Kaepernick with another weapon to go along with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. That offense would be stacked with young talent. It’ll be up to Kaepernick to make the most of it.
46. Miami Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
I’ll concede that Eifert is unlikely to declare for next year’s draft. 2011 will be his first season as a starter, but he played well when Kyle Rudolph was injured in 2010.
47. St. Louis Rams: Robert Lester, S, Alabama
The Rams have to find an answer at free safety now that O.J. Atogwe is in Washington.
48. New England Patriots: Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
The Patriots drafted Upshaw in the first round, but the team really needs to upgrade its pass rush.
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
Zach Brown continued a strong career last season while many of his teammates were suspended. This is as far as I can see him falling at this point.
50. San Diego Chargers: Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia
Many thought the Chargers would use an early 2011 selection on a pass rusher. They didn’t. They’ll need to next year unless a free agent is signed.
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Malliciah Goodman, DE, Clemson
Yes, I’m aware that the Buccaneers drafted defensive ends with each of their first two picks in 2011. And yes, I realize how cynical I’m about to sound. The team still doesn’t have anyone that can rush the passer.
52. New York Giants: Don’ta Hightower, MLB, Alabama
We all know how the Giants work by now. BAP, BAP, BAP! Hightower is the best available player. He also happens to fill a need. This would be a dream scenario for the G-Men.
53. Indianapolis Colts: Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh snap. I just went there. Peyton Manning isn’t going to play forever and Cousins may be a better prospect than any of the quarterbacks in the 2011 class. He’ll be able to spend his first contract learning from the best in the game.
54. Philadelphia Eagles: Vontaze Burfict, OLB, Arizona State
Ernie Sims isn’t the answer.
55. Kansas City Chiefs: Denard Robinson, WR, Michigan
Robinson would be a nice fit as a slot receiver. The Chiefs like these gadget players. Robinson is obviously capable of running and throwing the ball as well.
56. New Orleans Saints: Ray Ray Armstrong, S, Miami
The Saints don’t have many holes to fill, but they could use a strong safety prospect to team with Malcolm Jenkins.
57. Seattle Seahawks: John Simon, DT, Ohio State
The Seahawks addressed the offensive line in the 2011 draft. In 2012, they have to take care of the defensive line.
58. Baltimore Ravens: Chris Galippo, ILB, USC
Ray Lewis isn’t going to play forever…although it feels like he already has.
59. Atlanta Falcons: Jacquies Smith, DE, Missouri
Hey look the Falcons! Here is that defensive end that they needed to draft this past April. Have I mentioned that I thought the trade with Cleveland was a terrible idea?
60. New England Patriots: Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
I’m sure New England will trade one of these picks, but Crick is a no-brainer at this point. The Patriots should have drafted one of the top defensive end prospects in the 2011.
61. New York Jets: Levy Adcock, OT, Oklahoma State
The Jets have a need at right tackle and that also happens to be where the best value is in this scenario.
62. Chicago Bears: Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State
Chicago landed Gabe Carimi in the first round in 2011. That move should finally solidify both offensive tackle positions for the next five years. The interior of the line still needs work.
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
I really thought Pittsburgh would take a change-of-pace back early in the 2011 draft, but they waited until the 7th round to take Baron Batch. James is a much better option.
64. Green Bay Packers: Izaan Cross, DE, Georgia Tech
The Packers don’t have many needs, but they could certainly use another defensive end in case Cullen Jenkins departs via free agency.
